COVID-19 has forced massive change on all of us creating unimaginable amounts of uncertainty about the future. As we begin to look at what might be the “new normal,” there are a number of potential outcomes that may need to be considered.
Recently, Mark Beasley, Director of the ERM Initiative at NC State University interviewed Mick Reed, Director of Strategy and Risk Management at VF Corporation, about lessons he learned from serving as a senior consultant helping the U.S. Marine Corp anticipate ever-evolving conditions triggered by emerging global political and post-terrorism issues. Mick shares insights he gleaned from that experience about developing a framework to set the scope for thinking about a wide range of potential emerging risk issues that might be forcing change that lead to a “new normal.”
Mick speaks about defining worst-case, extreme events to help understand the potential magnitude of an event and then using that to work back to discussions about more likely scenarios of risks that may be more probable in occurrence so that the organization can be positioned to manage those risks and take strategic advantage of them should they begin to emerge. His insights can be helpful to ERM leaders who are helping their organizations begin to sort through the range of possible outcomes that may emerge as we recover from this recent pandemic crisis.
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